摘要
我国农村贫困是由自然、经济、社会、历史等多方面原因造成的,贫困系统内各因子之间的关系比较复杂。本文在对贫困原因进行定性分析的基础上,以人均粮食消费量、恩格尔系数、人均纯收入和贫困发生率作为贫困主行为因子,根据贫困数据样本特点和指标要求,采用灰色关联分析方法,定量研究了致贫因子间的影响程度以及因子对主行为的贡献测度。结果显示,对贫困贡献度最大的因子主要有:农村义务教育、人均水资源、耕地面积、自然灾害、农业机械化、财政支农等方面。本文还分析了可控影响因子与其他因子之间复杂的交互作用和影响关系。最后,提出了一些针对性的政策建议,为健全反贫困宏观监测系统,提高政府反贫困工作的规范性与准确性提供了可参考的依据。
Poverty in rural China is affected by natural, economic, social and historical factors, the relationships of which are complicated. Based on the qualitative analysis of rural poverty, authors chose per capita consumption of grain by rural households, household＇ s Engle coefficient, annual per capita net income of rural households and incidence of poverty to be mother sequences. Grey incidence analysis, as an effective quantitative method, was used to analyze the association coefficient between factors and their contributions to poverty by comparing series respectively according to the sample characteristics and indicator requirements. Results showed that compulsory rural education, per capita water resources, cultivated land, natural disaster, power of agricultm＇al machinery and government expenditure for agriculture were main factors to influence poverty by the relational order with other factors. The authors also analyzed complex interactions and relationships between controllable factors and others of poverty system. To help to build macro monitoring systems and increase the regularity and accuracy of the government antipoverty decision-making, some practical suggestions were given in the end.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期88-94,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
关键词
贫困
因子
灰色关联分析
poverty
factor
grey incidence analysis
