摘要
油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大比重,其高低直接影响油气田开发的经济效益。准确地预测油气单位操作成本,可以在生产中采取有效的控制手段,降低成本,提高企业效益。将组合预测法应用于油气操作成本的预测,利用非线性回归模型和灰色模型加权组合建立组合预测模型,并通过平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方误差和均方百分比误差等指标比较,证明组合模型比单一模型的预测效果更好,能提高油气操作成本预测的精度。
The operation cost holds a great proportion in oil and gas production,directly affecting economical benefit of oil and gas exploitation.Accurate prediction makes effective cost control possible and hence increase corporate benefits.This paper applies the combination forecasting method in the operation cost prediction,combining the non-linear regression model and the grey model with proper weight.A comparison of mean absolute error(MAE),mean average absolute percentage error(MAPE),mean square error(MSE),and mean square percentage error(MSPE) proves that combination forecasting model works better than single models,and is able to improve precision of oil and gas operation cost prediction.
出处
《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》
2009年第4期27-29,共3页
Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)
关键词
操作成本
组合预测
回归模型
灰色模型
operation cost
combination forecasting model
regression model
grey model
