摘要
文章针对民航运输业的产业发展情况,选取1978-2008年间的民航运输指标和GDP数据,建立VAR模型,在此基础上进行了协整分析、格兰杰因果检验分析其长期均衡关系、并用脉冲响应和方差分解对系统进行了动态分析。结果表明:民航运输对国民经济存在长期均衡关系,民航运输对国民经济的发展起到了推动作用。但是航线里程、货运等发展相对滞后。建议从调整航材进出口政策、航油放开和优化航线等方面促进民航业发展,进而推动国民经济发展。
Based on the civil aviation transportation index and GDP data from 1978 to 2008, the paper develops a VAR model and analyzes the longterm equilibrium relation of the industrial development of civil aviation transportation industry through co-integration test and Granger causality test. It makes dynamic analysis by using impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition, and the results show that there is a long term equilibrium between national economy and the civil aviation transportation industry. The civil aviation transportation industry can promote the growth of national economy. But the development such as the mileage of air route and air freight is lagged. It provides some suggestion about promoting civil aviation industry such as the adjustment of air material import and export policy, the relaxation of air oil management and the optimization of air routes.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第8期69-78,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词
民航运输业
协整
格兰杰因果检验
脉冲响应
civil aviation transportation industry
co- integration
Granger causality test
impulse response function
