摘要
以西安市1996－2006年统计数据为基础,分别从人口、经济、空间、生活城市化和生态环境压力、状态、响应层面构建了城市化与生态环境协调发展的综合指标评价体系,运用德尔菲法和加权求和方法获得分指标和综合指标得分,结合动态和静态协调指数构建了15种城市化与生态环境协调发展模式模型,并对其演化趋势进行评价和分析。结果显示：研究期间西安市城市化与生态环境以协调与基本协调发展模式为主,总体经历了城市化滞后型弱势不协调发展模式到城市化滞后型强势基本协调发展模式再到城市化超前型强势协调发展的演化过程,城市化与生态环境基本在协调发展的轨迹上,但也应注意研究期间西安市城市化与生态环境综合指数不仅表现出各自不同的发展轨迹,而且它们之间的协调发展类型也呈现出多样性,与需求日益扩大的城市化建设相比,其生态环境建设压力也将会逐渐显现出来,今后可能会出现强经济弱生态的调和阶段。
According to the statistical data from 1996 to 2006 in Xi＇an city,a comprehensive evaluation system was set up between urbanization and eco-environment containing four aspects of urbanization,such as population,economy,space,urban life and other three aspects in eco-environment,including environmental pressure,status and response.After we calculated sub-index values and comprehensive index values by Delphi and weighted sum,15 kinds of models of coordinated development are conceived and then we analyzed and evaluated their evolving trends with the static and dynamic coordination degrees.The results showed that the general process changes from the lagging urbanization period of weak and lack-coordinated development model to strong-coordinated development mode and then the urbanization advancing strong-coordinated development model.Besides,the dominant model in the studied period was coordination,and the track of the urbanization and eco-environment development was basically coordination,too.However,we must notice that the trends of the comprehensive index of urbanization and eco-environment change in the opposite direction and the development models are diverse.The pressure of eco-environmental construction will emerge gradually compared to the rapidly expanding consumption demand about urbanization.In the future,it may experience a phase of strong economy and weak ecology.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期1378-1385,共8页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2004D04)
陕西师范大学重点项目
关键词
城市化
生态环境
协调发展模式
西安市
urbanization
eco-environment
coordinated development mode
Xi＇an
