摘要
本文利用1932年至1982年的逐日国际太阳黑子相对数的9日平均时间序列来分析太阳黑子演变的动力学特性,发现太阳黑子是至少需要七个独立变量来描述的复杂动力系统,其关联维数为6.3+0.1,二阶Renyi熵和最大Lyapunov指数分别为(0.37±0.02)bit/yr和(0.34±0.01)bit/yr,它们表征的可预报时间尺度,即初始误差增长一倍所需的时间分别为(2.7±0.2)年和(2.9±0.l)年.
In this paper the 9 days meaned series of the dayly international sunspot numbers from 1932-1982 are used to analyse the dynamical properties of the sunspots evolution. It is concluded that the sunspot is a complex dynamical system which should be described by at least seven independent variables, and that its correlation dimension is 6.3 ± 0.1, the 2-order Renyi entropy and the maximum Lyapunov exponent are respectively (0.37 ±0.02) bit/yr. The predictable time scales that they indicate, namely, the time for initial error becoming 2 times larger, are (2.7±0.2) years and (2.9±0.1) years, respectively.
出处
《空间科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第1期1-7,共7页
Chinese Journal of Space Science
关键词
太阳黑子
分维数
预报性
Sunspot, Fractional dimension, Lyapunov exponent
