摘要
本文以唐山海岸带为研究区,基于2000年和2005年TM遥感影像,运用3S技术,通过人机交互目视解译提取了精度较高的两期该区土地利用/土地覆被数据。以2000年土地利用数据为基期,选取距农村居民点距离、距城镇距离、距道路距离、距河流距离、距海岸线距离、地下水埋深、土壤类型、成因地貌、工程地质条件9个自然和社会经济因素作为驱动因素,运用CLUE-S模型模拟了2005年的土地利用类型空间格局,并用2005年的实际解译数据加以验证。结果表明:正确模拟比例达88.95%,Kappa指数为0.8711。说明CLUE-S模型能够较准确地模拟小尺度海岸带地区的土地利用/土地覆被变化。在此基础上又分别模拟了自然增长、土地结构优化、经济发展、生态保护4种情景方案下2015年研究区的土地利用格局。结果表明:在不同情景方案下的土地利用/土地覆被格局存在显著的空间差异,对该区域制定合理的土地管理政策有着指导意义。
The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses of the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change are studied by many professionals in the research of land use and cover change, and modeling is an important tool for the study. In this paper, CLUE-S model is applied to the change simulation of the spatial patterns of land use to a regional extent on the basis of system theory, which allows an integrated analysis of land use change and the physical and socio-economic driving factors. The spatial resolution of the modeling can reach single grid cell level. The model is used to simulate the regional agriculture and forest land use system in many countries. This paper takes Tangshan Coastal zone as the study area and collects the land use/land cover data in two different periods with higher accuracy, based on the TM remote sensing images in 2000 and 2005, which have been grabbed by using 3S （RS, GIS, GPS） technology. Based on the LUCC data of 2000, this paper chooses the following nine natural and social-economic factors as the driving factors： distances to the rural residential areas, to the town residential areas, and to the roads, river and coastline, groundwater depth, soil types, causes of landform and engineering geology condition. The spatial pattern of land use types in 2005 is simulated by using the CLUE-S model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2005, it can be found that the simulation accuracy is up to 88.95% and the Kappa index is 0.8711; therefore, the CLUE-S Model can be used to simulate the LUCC of coastal zone on a small scale. Furthermore, the land use pattern in 2015 is simulated in four scenarios： natural increase scenario, land structure optimization scenario, economic development scenario and ecological protection scenario. The results show that the LUCC pattern presents obvious spatial diversity in different scenarios.The regions in which the different land use types are prone to competing and conversing are Jingtang Port, western Daqing River, Tanghai Wetland Reserve, surrounding areas of Xiangyun Forest, and Laoting coastal area. Therefore, it is very important to develop land management policies in this region. Although the simulation is generally successful, the CLUE-S Model can not simulate the land use change from continents to ocean, which can be the influential factor for the accuracy of simulation.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期1392-1399,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划:"京津冀地区土地综合承载能力评价技术示范"(编号:2006BAB15B02-04)
河北省重点基础研究项目:"河北省土地利用与大气颗粒物状况关系研究"(编号:08966712D)
