摘要
基于均生函数的处理原则，对目前常用的均生函数逐步筛选模型、主成分模型进行预报试验，提出带逐步筛选的主成分模型，并用变化辐度较大的降水序列对三种模型进行若干预测试验。结果表明：逐步筛选的主成分模型优于主成分模型，在对不同预报步长的预测试验中也表明，逐步筛选的主成分模型在预测效果以及模型的稳定性方面都是较好的。
In this paper based on mean generating function principle,the experimental forecast with stepwise sieving model and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) model of mean generating function have been made We put forward a new kind of EOF model with stepwise sieving,and all of the three forecasting models have been experimented on precipitation sequence with great variation amplitude The result shows the EOF model with stepwise sie ving is better than EOF model alone,and another result which forecasts have been experimented by different forecast steplength also shows EOF model with stepwise sieving is very good in the respect of forecast effect and model operation stability
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第3期271-275,共5页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家"九五"重中之重科技攻关项目
关键词
均生函数
汛期雨量
降水预报
预测模型
Mean generating function EOF model Stepwise sieving Rainy season precipitation
