摘要
利用1949年以来59a农业自然灾害和粮食生产数据，分析安徽省农业旱灾变化规律和粮食安全态势，探讨农业旱灾对粮食安全的影响。结果表明：农业干旱灾害呈现明显周期性波动，干旱轻重灾情交替出现，其波动周期大致为5～10a。近30a来干旱灾害对该省粮食生产的致灾强度越来越大，即其危害日趋严重。粮食总产量、粮食单产和粮食播种面积的年变化率均与干旱受灾率、成灾率、灾害强度指数、受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数等指标显著负相关。其中以灾害强度指数、受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数对粮食生产的影响更为显著，且受灾率异常指数的影响最为显著。该研究结果可为安徽省农业防灾减灾体系建设和粮食安全提供参考和借鉴。
Based on the statistical data of natural disasters and grain yields from 1949 to 2007, the dynamic change of agricultural drought disaster and food security in Anhui Province were analyzed. The impact of agricultural drought disaster on food security was also discussed by using the methods of comparative analysis, correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results indicate that： （1） The disaster takes place almost every year and light and heavy agricultural droughts appear alternatively in a cycle of about 5 - 10 years. （2） The relationship between the annual gradient of total grain yield, yield per unit area, planting area and disaster-affected/suffering area rates, the ratio of disasteraffected to suffering areas, anomaly indices of disaster-affected/suffering area rates is significant negative correlation respectively. In all the indices of agricultural drought disaster, the influences of the ratio of disaster-affected to suffering areas, anomaly indices of disaster-affected/suffering area rates on grain yields are more significant than others. The results of this paper can give some references for agricultural disaster reduction and food security in Anhui Province.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期18-23,共6页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
关键词
干旱灾害
粮食安全
农业
安徽省
drought disaster
food security
agriculture
Anhui Province
