摘要
煤电价格政策的制定,必须兼顾下游产业的利益。本文运用复杂网络研究方法,构建了包含煤炭和电力、涉及76个产业的价格传导网络模型,该模型较好模拟了价格传导现状。模型分析得出,电力产业价格传导强度大于煤炭产业价格传导强度。情景模拟得出:当煤炭和电力价格分别上涨相同幅度时,无论是近期还是一定滞后期内,电价上涨导致的CPI上涨幅度明显大于煤价上涨产生的效应。据此,本文提出相对稳定销售电价,实行上网电价与煤价联动的政策思路。
The price policy of coal and electricity should be framed on the behalves of down-stream industries. With the complex-network research method, the article proposed the price conduction complex networks, which includes coal and electricity industries and other 74 industries and simulates price conduction situation well. It is analyzed that electricity- industry has stronger price conduction intensity than coal-industry. In scenes simulation, whether in the near future or in the lag future, CPI rises induced by electricity price rising evidently more than by coal price rising even if the coal and electricity price rise to the same extent Therefore, it is proposed that electricity sells price should be relatively stable and network electrovalence linkage with coal price.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2009年第9期31-35,共5页
China Mining Magazine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(70841009)
关键词
煤电价格
复杂网络
价格传导强度
上网电价联动
coal and electricity price
complex networks
price conduction intensity
price linkage
