摘要
选取绍兴国家气象观测站1961年1月至2009年2月逐月降水量作为降水分析基本资料,利用一元线性回归、小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等统计学方法对绍兴降水季节变化和年际变化的特征进行了综合分析,分析了不同时间尺度下降水序列变化的周期和突变点,并根据主周期对未来降水变化趋势进行了预估。结果发现,绍兴市近48a各个季节和年降水都存在多时间尺度特征,大尺度的周期变化中嵌套有小尺度的周期变化。春季降水以3～4a年周期为主,并有准3a周期向准4a周期转变的趋势;夏季降水主要存在准4a和准14a周期变化;秋季降水主要存在准2a和准12a周期变化;冬季降水主要存在准4a和准16a周期变化;年降水主要存在准2a和准4a年际周期变化和准13a年代际周期变化。绍兴春季和冬季降水突变不明显;夏季和秋季突变明显,突变点分别出现在1973年和1963年,而年降水突变不明显,不存在明显的突变期。夏季降水变化趋势和年降水趋势基本一致;夏季降水和年降水在时域上分布有很大的相似性,都具有准4a周期变化,并全时域存在;夏季降水突变影响到全年降水的突变。根据绍兴夏季降水和年降水的主周期推测,2009年后的5～6a绍兴年降水将相对偏多。
This paper analyzes the historical rainfall data of Shaoxing National Meteorological Observatory, by using methods of linear regression, wavelet analysis and MannKendall mutation testing, to reveal the seasonal variation and interannual change of 48 year＇s rainfall series in Shaoxing region., and to forecast the future rainfall. The results are as follows. Multiple time scale features can be seen in the whole seasonal and annual rainfall series. The 3 ~4 years period variations prevail in spring rainfall series, with a transition trend from 3 years period to 4 years period. 4 years and 14 years period variations are the main types in summer rainfall series. 2 years and 12 years period variations are mainly found in autumn rainfall series, and 4 years and 16 years period variations in winter rainfall sequence. 2 years, 4 years and 13 years period variations prevail in annual rainfall sequence. The sudden change of spring, winter and annual rainfall is not obvious.The mutation points of summer and autumn rainfall occur, respectively, in 1973 and 1963. The same tendency is seen in summer and annual rainfall sequence. The summer rainfall mutation influences the annual rainfall mutation. The rainfall of Shaoxing region will become affluent in the future 5~6 years according to the main period of summer and annual rainfall series.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第18期60-65,共6页
Science & Technology Review
