摘要
M1、M2均符合可测性要求。稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,M1比M2更具可控性。Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析结果和基于M1、M2相对增长速度的分析结果表明,M1与货币政策最终目标的相关性好于M2。因此,我国仍应将M1作为货币政策中介目标,将M2作为观测目标,并要加强对M1的相对增长速度的调控。
M1, M2 are consistent with the requirements of testability. M1 is more controllable than M2, which can be seen from the results of stability test and granger causality test. Relevance of M1 with final goals of monetary policy is better than that of M2, which can be seen from the results of Johansen cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response analysis and the analysis of relative growth rate of M1, M2. Therefore, China should focus on M1 as an intermediate target of monetary policy and M2 as an observed target, and strengthen to regulate M1 relative growth rate.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第9期64-69,共6页
Statistical Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(08JC790027)
哈尔滨工业大学优秀青年教师培养计划资助项目(HITQNJS.2008.036)
