摘要
基于对恒定市场份额模型的扩展和动态应用形成的动态分析框架,可以清楚和准确地把握出口的推动因素,以及出口国源于竞争国的实际得失。利用恒定市场份额模型分析框架,分解中国及其竞争国对日本大米出口的增长率,动态地计算出口国源于竞争国的实际得失,从而分析中国在日本大米市场的竞争地位。结论是,从总体上讲,美国是日本大米市场的领先者,中国和泰国是实力相当的挑战者,越南是具潜力的追随者,澳大利亚是实力下降的追随者。
The dynamic analysis framework based on the extended Constant Market Share Analysis model and dynamic technique provides clearer evidences on the factors promoting export changes, and gains/losses attributed to competitors. Using the dynamic analysis framework, export growth rate is decomposed into different effects, and actual gains/losses are computed for the competing exporters. The analysis suggests that, the US is the market leader, China and Thailand are comparable challengers, Viet Nam is the potential follower, and Australia is the failing follower.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第10期56-61,共6页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社科基金项目(批准号:05BJL049)
××(省市)高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金项目(编号:17054)
××大学文科"跨越"发展基金项目(编号:07KYY009)
