中国资产价格与货币政策反应函数模拟被引量：73

Simulation on Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reaction Function of China

导出

摘要本文分别估计我国考虑或不考虑以股价、房价为代表的资产价格的IS-Phillips模型,进而分别推出我国考虑资产价格与忽视资产价格的货币政策反应函数,并据此对经济进行模拟分析。研究结果显示,我国股价和房价对产出缺口有较为显著的作用。如果货币政策反应函数忽视资产价格,将导致更大的损失。因此,本文建议我国央行在制定利率时应考虑资产价格对实体经济的影响;同时为了兼顾利率的平滑性,还应完善对资产市场的监管。 This paper estimates Chinese IS-Phillips models. One takes account of asset prices, and the other does not. Further, the paper concludes the corre- sponding monetary policy reaction functions, simulates Chinese economy. According to the result, prices of house and stock have affected Chinese real economy, and if the central bank ignores the impact of asset prices, there will be greater loss. Therefore, the paper suggests Chinese central bank should take asset prices into account while setting the interest rate and improve the supervision and regulation on the asset market to maintain smoothness of the interest rate.

作者唐齐鸣熊洁敏

机构地区华中科技大学经济学院

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第11期104-115,共12页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金教育部"国际金融危机应对研究"应急课题(2009JYJR059)资助

关键词资产价格货币政策反应函数模拟 IS-Phillips模型 Asset Prices Monetary Policy Reaction Function Simulation IS-Phillips Model

分类号 F822 [经济管理—财政学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献13

1Bernanke, B. S. and M. Gertler, 1999, Monetary policy and asset price volatility [J], Economic Review, 84 (4), 17-51.
2Castro, V. , 2008, Are central banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule [R], NIPE W P19.
3Cecchetti, S. et al. , 2000, Asset prices and central bank policy [R], ICMB and CEPR, The Geneva Report on the World Economy, No. 2.
4Elbourne, A. , 2008, The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: an SVAR approach [J], Journal of Housing Economics, 17, 65-87.
5Goodhart, C. and B. Hofmann, 2001, Asset prices, financial conditions, and the transmission of monetary policy [C], Conference on "Asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy", Stanford University, March2-3.
6Goodhart, C. and B. Hofmann, 2002, Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy [C], Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002, No. 88.
7Kontonikas, A. and A. Montagnoli, 2006, Optimal monetary policy and asset price misalignments [J], Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 53 (5), 636-654.
8Rudebusch, G.D. and L. E. O. Svensson, 1998, Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting[R], NBER Working Paper, No. 6512.
9Svensson, L. E. O. , 1997, Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets [J], European Economic Review, 41, 1111-1146.
10丁晨,屠梅曾.论房价在货币政策传导机制中的作用——基于VECM分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(11):106-114. 被引量：132