摘要
为了得到更合理、准确的未来能源发展趋势预测结果,利用非线性函数模型描述能源生产发展系统的非线性动态特征。分别采用非线性指数回归模型和灰色系统理论中的模型方法建立了中国油气资源生产发展预测模型。并利用组合预测理论及建模技术采用标准差法进行最优组合权重分配,建立了中国油气资源生产发展的组合预测模型。经检验达到了较好的预测精度。结果表明,这一模型适合于油气资源生产发展的趋势预测,为能源预测提供了新的方法,并在实例中进行了初步的预测应用,取得了较好的效果,为我国的能源发展战略提供可靠的科学依据。
In view of the complexity and non-linearity of energy system,this paper analyzes the historical data of energy production in China,the respective model of gray forecast and nonlinear regression model are established firstly,then the method of optimized combination is applied to allocate the weights for the accurate forecast model and forecast value.h is proved that the combination forecasting model is suitable and feasible for studying the production of energy system through analyzing characteristic of the model.The result shows that the model can be taken as an effective tool to predict Chinese future energy production,analyzing the development trend of energy production for future China,as well as providing reliable scientific basis for energy development strategy of China.
出处
《计算机工程与应用》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第34期208-211,共4页
Computer Engineering and Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金No.59808013~~
关键词
能源预测
非线性回归
灰色模型
组合预测
energy forecast
nonlinear regression
gray model
combination forecast
