摘要
本文挖掘中国经济波动的体制困境,试图为中国的经济波动勾勒出一个理论框架。目前的经济体制是波动形成的来源,经济体制中"信贷—投资—增长—通胀"四个互相契合的作用机制使得经济发展陷入体制困境当中,呈现出"活—乱—收—死"的形态。利用1978—2007年经济增长率、固定资产投资增长率、年末贷款余额增长率和消费者价格指数的年度数据,通过设置单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,本文验证了这一理论。我们的理论表明,中国的经济波动内生于其特殊的经济运作体制,因而也就面临两难处境。摆脱这一困境的出路在于体制变革和经济增长方式的转变。
This paper investigates China＇s institutional predicament and economic fluctuation, we set up a theoretical framework for China＇s economic fluctuation. We pointed out the current economic system are the source of China＇s economic fluctuation, four mechanisms- ＂credit - investing- growth- inflation＂ fit to- gether makes the plight of economic development into a system which, showing a ＂live - chaos - land - Die＂ forms. Using （1978 - 2007） annual data of economic growth rate, fixed- asset investment growth rate, loans growth rate and consumer price index, by setting the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper verify the theory. Our theory shows that China＇s economic fluctuations endogenous within the special economics ystem and, therefore, facing the dilemma. Out of this predicament hes in change of institution and economic growth pattern.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期74-83,共10页
Finance & Economics
关键词
经济波动
体制困境
经济发展
Economic Fluctuation
Institutional Predicament
Economic Development
