摘要
就我国甲型H1N1流感传染人数的预测运用灰色系统理论,建立了GM(1,1)模型和1阶残差修正模型GMε(1,1),并分别作了精度分析。研究了GMε(1,1)的变化趋势,提出了临界值和有效域概念。用MATLAB确定了模型参数及模型预测值。
As for our prediction of number of people infected by Influenza A（H1N1） in China,the GM（1,1） model and a first-order residual error correction model are established under the application of grey system theory.At the same time,two models have been under the way of accuracy analysis respectively.This paper studies the change in trend of GM ε（1,1）and comes up with the concept of critical value and the effective domain.The model parameters and model forecasts are determined by means of MATLAB.
出处
《防灾科技学院学报》
2009年第4期48-53,共6页
Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention
