摘要
采用协整理论、格兰杰因果关系检验以及误差修正模型,利用1979—2005年的时间序列数据,分析了经济增长的规模效应、结构效应、聚集效应、投资效应与耕地消耗之间的关系。研究结果表明,经济增长各变量与耕地消耗之间均存在长期的均衡关系;误差修正模型显示经济规模扩大和固定资产投资等经济增长指标在短期内对耕地消耗的拉动作用非常明显,同时经济增长的聚集效应在短期内具有减少耕地消耗的趋势,经济增长的结构效应在短期内对耕地消耗的作用不明显;格兰杰因果关系检验显示,经济增长的规模效应、投资效应与耕地消耗之间存在单向的因果关系。
This paper used the cointegration theory, Granger causality tests method and ECM to analyse the relationship between economic growth and the consumption of cultivated land. The results suggest that （ 1 ） there was a long run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the cultivated land consumption. （2） ECM suggest that the increase of economic scale and investment can increase the consumption of cultivated land in the shorterm. , and centralization of economic can decrease the consumption of cultivated land, the effect of economic structure to the consumption of cultivated land was not distinct. （3）from the Granger causality tests we can get that there was inreversible causality relationship between the scale effect ,investment effect and consumption of cultivated land.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期63-67,共5页
Areal Research and Development
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ05A14-03)
关键词
经济增长
耕地消耗
协整分析
误差修正模型
economic growth
the consumption of cultivated land
cointegration
ECM
