摘要
在所提出的风险评估模型中,将线路的故障可能性看做随机模糊数,基于证据理论构造了架空线路的故障可能性模型,可更好地反映外部环境对线路故障可能性的影响;并采用效用函数度量电力系统元件故障损失带来的不满意程度,所给出的指标能灵敏地反映电力系统故障风险的变化趋势,符合电网运行实际;最后以北京电网为例,说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
In the proposed risk assessment model, the failure possibility of overhead lines is regarded as a random fuzzy variable. Based on the evidence theory, the failure possibility model for overhead lines is constructed which can better reflect the effect of the surroundings on the failure possibility. In the risk assessment model, the utility function is used to measure the degree of dissatisfaction induced by failures and the proposed risk indices can sensitively reflect the trends of risk indices and accord with the actual power system operation. Finally, the Beijing power grid is used as a research example to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第23期1-4,47,共5页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50877026
70871036)
北京市教育委员会共建项目建设计划资助项目~~
关键词
风险评价
证据理论
随机模糊数
故障严重程度
效用理论
risk assessment
evidence theory
random fuzzy variable
severity of failures
utility theory
