摘要
对桑园害虫的种群数量预测,有助于对桑园害虫爆发危害的预防。利用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的基本原理,依据浙江省湖州地区近13年来对桑螟种群变动的调查统计数据,建立桑螟灾变的长期预测模型为:t(k1+)1=4.250 000 exp(0.582 781k)-3.250 000。经检验该模型的c=0.131 2,P=1.000,精度达到1级。应用构建的模型,初步预测浙江省湖州地区第4代桑螟种群数量在2014年左右可能达到149 925头/hm2以上。
Forecasting population quantity of mulberry pests will greatly facilitate the prevention of damage from mulberry pests.In present study,the basic theory of grey system GM（1,1） model was employed to establish a forecast model on long time Diaphania pyloalis cataclysm based on the survey on the changing populations of Diaphania pyloalis during the past 13 years in Huzhou City of Zhejiang Province.The established model is：tk＋1^1=4.250 000 exp（0.582 781 k）-3.250 000.It was proved that accuracy of the model was of the first grade（c=0.131 2,P=1.000）.Using this model,it was preliminarily predicted that the number of the 4th generation of Diaphania pyloalis in Huzhou area of Zhejiang Province will probably be as many as 149 925 per hectare in 2014.
出处
《蚕业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期869-871,共3页
ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA
关键词
灰色理论
桑螟
灾变预测
种群数量
Grey theory
Diaphania pyloalis
Cataclysm forecast
Population quantity
