摘要
首先运用对各因素指标和就业人数的历史数据进行灰色关联分析,得出对城镇就业影响比较大的一些指标因素及它们的关联程度大小,总结影响城镇就业的主要指标;其次运用因子分析法将这些指标进行综合化,得到对就业影响大并且彼此间相独立的综合性指标,将这些综合性指标进行回归分析建模,建立了主要指标和就业之间的数学量化模型;第三,根据所建立的数学模型,采用多因素因果分析法以及灰色GM预测模型和综合预测法,对我国2009年及2010年上半年的就业前景进行仿真;最后,对提高我国城镇就业人口数提出相关的咨询建议。
This paper studied various factors index and employment figure of history data to do grey incidence analysis,then can get the more influence factors of urban employment and their degree of correlation, summarizing the main indexes that can affect urban employment; Second, using the factor analysis method, integrating many factors into comprehensive index, we can obtain the independent indexes that can greatly affect employment, then make regression analysis to build the model of the comprehensive index, which can show the influence between main indexes and employment; Third, according to the estab- hshed mathematical model, using multi-factor causal analysis, grey forecast model and comprehensive forecast, the simulation can be done to prospect employment for our country during 2009 and the first half of 2010; Finally, some relevant advices will be given to improve the urban employment figure.
出处
《物流工程与管理》
2009年第12期117-119,共3页
Logistics Engineering and Management
关键词
就业人数
灰色关联分析
回归分析
GM预测模型
employment figure
grey incidence analysis
regression analysis
grey forecast model
