摘要
针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。
Aimed at the particularity of stock ammunition safety, points out the demerits of traditional probability calculate methods such as ETA and FTA on the basis of enumerating the domestic and overseas stock ammunition accident cases. Puts forwards a probability calculation method of stock ammunition accident based on FID, and describes the procedure and arithmetic of FID model. Finally, with the ammuni- tion-stolen accident as an example, the accident probability distribution chart and accumulation probability curve are calculated and obtained. The result shows that the procedure and arithmetic of FID model can o- vercome the demerits of ETA and FI＂A methods. Analysis result also shows that the tiptop subjection degree of ammunition-stolen accident is 10 -4, and accident probability tends to be 10 -3 to 10 -1, thus it is concluded that if the safety measure could not achieve the standard, the ammunition-stolen accident will stand a good chance to happen.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第11期62-68,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
模糊影响图(FID)
库存弹药
弹药事故
事故概率
fuzzy influence diagram（FID）
stock ammunition
ammunition accident
accident probability
