摘要
科学合理的用地需求预测方法是土地利用总体规划能否制定科学合理目标的关键。选取在形态上呈相对聚集、面状分布的城乡建设用地为预测对象,将Gray-Markov模型引入到城乡建设用地规模预测中来,并以甘肃省张掖市为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:与其他预测模型对比,Gray-Markov模型模拟和预测精度更高,能够为土地利用总体规划提供可靠保证。
Scientific and reasonable scale prediction methods of land use are the keys of general land use planning implementation. This paper chooses urban construction land, in the form of relative aggregation area, as a prediction target. It introduces the Gray - Markov Chain Model to the prediction and it also takes an empirical research in Zhangye city in Gansu province. The results show that the Gray - Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with other models and also is a reliable guarantee for the general land planning.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2010年第2期73-77,共5页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
2008年度国家社会科学基金重点项目<基于主体功能区视角的西部民族和边疆地区国土开发格局优化研究>(08AMZ003)
西北师范大学三期知识与科技创新工程项目<西北生态脆弱区可持续发展模式研究>(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-20)
