摘要
在红松林地理分布规律研究的基础上，应用地理信息系统ＩＤＲＩＳＩ和专门计算机软件——生态信息系统ＧＲＥＥＮ，找出适宜红松林分布的地理气候参数区间，并以此确定了红松林适宜分布区，在此基础上，根据全球气候预测模型ＧＣＭｓ预测的２０３０年的气候变化结果，就气候变化对我国红松林地理分布的可能影响进行了预测。结果表明：到２０３０年，因气候变化的影响，我国适宜红松分布的面积将有所增加，但增加幅度不大，仅占当前气候条件下适宜红松分布面积的３．４％，局部地区变化的情况是：在黑龙江省的西北部适宜红松分布的面积将有所增加；在辽宁省的西南部适宜红松分布的面积将有所减少。红松林现实分布区的南界将向北移动０．１～０．６个纬度，北界将向北扩展０．３～０．５个纬度，黑龙江省境内的红松林分布区的西界将向西扩展０．１～０．５个经度。我国适宜红松分布的面积将由当前气候条件下的２．９×１０７ｈｍ２，增加到３．０×１０７ｈｍ２。就当前气候变化影响预测中存在的问题及未来研究的方向进行了讨论。
Based on the studies of geographical distribution of Pinus koraiensis ,a GIS,named IDRISI,and designed a software of ecological information system,named GREEN,were applied in this paper to find the climate parameter suitable for its growth.According the parameter,its natural distribution scope was defined.Furthermore,according to the prediction of climate change in 2030 by GCMs,the possible effects of climate changes on the distribution of Pinus koraiensis were predicted.It suggests that due to the climate changes,the area of Pinus koraiensis in China will increase by 3.4% of the total areas which are suitable for its growth at the present.Specifically in regions,the area of Pinus koraiensis stands in the northwest of Heilongjiang Province and in the southwest of Liaoning Province could increase while that in the southwest of Liaoning Province likely could decrease.The southern boundary of Pinus koraiensis will move 0.1～0.6 longitudes toward north,Its northern boundary could move 0 3～0 5 longitudes toward north.The west boundary of Pinus koraiensis in Heilongjiang Province will possibly extend toward west 0 1～0 5 longitude.The total areas suitable for Pinus koraiensis will enlarge from 2 9×10 7hm 2 now to 3 0×10 7hm 2 in 2030.Further discussion was also made on the problem in the prediction of climate change effects and the future works to do.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第5期484-484,共1页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家"九五"攻关课题
关键词
气候变化
红松
地理分布
预测
climate change, Pinus koraiensis ,geographic distribution,prediction.
