摘要
2009年11月,引起广泛关注的"气荒"是产业链风险的再次体现,是产业链快速发展的阶段问题。为避免"气荒"频发,着眼整个天然气产业链及其外部环境,剖析了"气荒"产生的原因,提出特定发展阶段、独特动力结构和特殊发展轨迹是解读"气荒"的关键:①产业链处于快速发展阶段并提早进入市场引导资源的细分阶段,伴随供需失衡是难以避免的正常现象;②产业链上、中游有一定竞争性,中游的干线和支线处于一定分割状态,低气价和管道燃气接驳费等下游市场制度安排,各环节均产生强烈的需求扩张冲动,激发了天然气供需失衡;③早期以低价支农惠民起步,我国经济发展水平和城市化水平迈上新台阶,下游市场形成巨大城市燃气需求,天然气利用规划不到位以及储气设施、调峰手段严重不足,加剧了天然气供需失衡。为此提出了有效防范天然气产业链风险的建议:①必须加强产业链发展规划;②建立全产业链调峰、错谷机制;③从全球视角看待价格机制改革;④逐步通过产业链结构改革,引入竞争机制。
Since November in 2009,'gas famine' has again aroused wide public concern all over China,which reflects how the risk presents and what problems are at a certain stage in natural gas industrial chain.To avoid frequent occurrence of 'gas famine',we are focusing on the whole natural gas industrial chain and its outside environment to make in-depth investigation into the origins of 'gas famine' in China.Three key factors help us well understand how 'gas famine' broke out:a.Particular stage of development accompanies the imbalance between supply and demand.Natural gas industrial chain has come to a stage of rapid development in the last decade,and is now even coming ahead of time to a stage of market-oriented resources division,which inevitably results in the imbalance between supply and demand.b.Specific driving force triggers the imbalance between supply and demand.Competition to some degree exists in the up and middle stream of the industrial chain,pipeline construction projects are divided by state-owned oil companies and local governmental enterprises into trunk and branch lines,and low gas prices and pipeline gas connection charges stimulate end users especially urban gas dealers to try every means to attract users as many as possible.c.Unique developing trajectory aggregates the imbalance between supply and demand.Although gas supply at the initial stage just met the need of agriculture and domestic use,now both economy and urbanization have stepped into a new level,resulting in a big demand for gas in the market,on the other hand,there is neither a complete plan of gas utilization nor good enough gas storage facilities and peak-shaving means.Therefore,risk mitigation measures are suggested here:a.a full plan should be developed for the whole industrial chain;b.peak-valley adjustment mechanism should be gone through the whole chain;c.a gas pricing system should be reformed from the global perspective;d.a competitive system should be introduced gradually into the industrial chain by new reforms.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期119-122,共4页
Natural Gas Industry
