摘要
人口与气候变化关系是一个非常缺乏研究的领域。本文总结近年有关人口变动对气候变化影响研究领域的状况,讨论不同研究方法和模型的应用成果及其局限性,特别介绍了应用整合评估模型iPETS对主要国家和地区温室气体排放预测结果,指出人口变动与经济发展、技术变动等都是人类影响气候变化的决定因素;人口变动的影响不只是人口规模的增减,人口和家庭户结构及其空间分布的变化也是应该考虑的内容;家庭户应该成为气候变化研究的人口分析单位;人口老化、城市化、家庭规模缩小等都是影响未来气候变化的重要人口因素。本研究提供了改进气候预测模型对人口变量处理方式的实例,指出了在制定减缓气候变化政策过程中考虑人口因素的重要性和可操作建议。
The studies on the relationships between population and climate change have not attracted enough attentions from climate research community and policy makers. This paper reviews the researches of the impact of population dynamics on climate change, through analyzing the findings and limitations of existing approaches and models, particularly introducing the progresses in improving the projections of CO2 emissions using the integrated assessment model iPETS. It reveals that population dynamics, interacting with economic growth and technological changes, is one of the root cause of climate changes. Population dynamics is not only the changes in population size, but also the compositional changes and spatial distributions of the populations and households. Household, instead of individual in a population, should be considered as the demographic unit of analysis in climate change forecasting. Aging, urbanization, and household shrinking are all important demographic factors determining future changes in the climate system. This paper gives examples on how to improve the demographic modules in climate change modeling, and indicates the importance of considering demographic factors in stipulating climate change mitigation policies.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期59-69,共11页
Population Research
