摘要
研究了中国自改革开放以来的经济周期与首次实现“软”着陆的基本特征．中国经济的周期性行为主要反映在总需求过度膨胀方面，尽管这是中国经济周期的一般特征，但每个周期的具体表现都有所不同．通货膨胀率在不同周期下降的方式各不相同，反映出中国经济结构变化的程度和每个周期的反通胀的政策措施各不相同．尽管我们试图界定出第４周期在某一方面的突出特征，但第４周期的软着陆的实现却有力地说明。
This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s. First, a detailed description of each of the four cycles since 1978 focuses on developments in key economic variables in each episode. Subsequently, employing a simple Philips curve model, an econometric investigation confirms the anecdotal evidence that the inflationary episodes have generally been associated with surges in aggregate demand. It is argued, however, that the factors behind the upswings and relative importance of the components of aggregate demand have differed across cycles. The most recent cycle stands out in having achieved a soft landing for the first time, combining a significant reduction in inflation with only a moderate slowing of growth. While the paper underscores the role of a number of structural and policy factors widely believed to have facilitated the soft landing, it argues that there is an additional important factor. The fourth cycles differed from previous cycles in that aggregate demand in the upswing was fueled mainly by a surge in investment spending. Although the strong investment demand initially increased aggregate demand more than supply - increasing inflationary pressures - it eventually led to an increase in capacity and potential output, which tended to dampen inflationary pressures and allowed the economy to settle into a soft landing despite continued strong real GDP growth.
出处
《管理科学学报》
1998年第4期67-75,共9页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
中国博士后科学基金
关键词
经济周期
经济增长
通货膨胀
软着陆
中国
business cycles, economic growth, inflation, sacrifice ratio, soft landing
