摘要
根据边坡位移监测信息,应用灰色系统的原理和方法,对边坡的变形发展变化进行预测是一种有效手段。但边坡变形受到某些外界因素的影响发生突变时,监测数据序列不能正确反映边坡变形规律,致使边坡变形预测结果出现强度偏差。因此,提出数据突变预处理方法,并结合四车道扁平特大断面隧道洞口边坡变形现场监测数据,建立数据突变下的时间序列灰色预测模型,对边坡的发展变化情况进行预测。研究结果表明:基于数据突变预处理方法的时间序列灰色预测变形值与边坡实际发展变化一致,提高了时间序列灰色预测的准确性。
By using investigation information of slopes development, the grey system theory can be applied to foreeast the unknown deformation of slopes. When some factors become the main influencing ones to the deformations of slopes , by using equal interval time series , the monitoring data can not reflect the correct deformation of slopes and then the wrong forecast will be made. The method for dealing with the mutation data was put forward. And based on the monitoring data in the entrance slope of the extra-large eross-section and cow fiat-ratio tunnel, this paper applied the time series by the method for dealing with mutation to forecast the deformation of slopes. The prediction results agree well with the real deformations,which is mueh more accurate than the former.
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第A02期1493-1496,共4页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
关键词
扁平特大断面隧道
边坡工程
数据突变
灰色预测
时间序列
extra - large cross - section and cow fiat - ratio tunnel
mutation data
slope engineering
grey forecasting
tane series
