摘要
基于1998年1月至2008年10月的月度数据,通过对中国实际利用外资的影响因素进行经验分析后发现,中国股市成交量、对外出口量是影响中国FDI流入的显著内在因素,但经验分析没有发现中国股市规模、人民币汇率和经济增长率会显著影响中国FDI流入的证据。另外,研究还发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,美国长期资产收益率的上升和OECD国家广义货币供给量的增加,会使中国的实际利用外资数量下降。因此,历史数据并不能说明中国FDI流入受到了跨国公司融资能力的制约。中国必须采取措施降低国际金融危机对FDI流入的负面影响,以保证中国经济的稳定增长。第一,可以采取稳定股市的政策,保持股市活跃交易,以吸引跨国并购资金的流入;第二,可以考虑对人民币进行适度贬值,或至少保持人民币币值稳定,避免因西方国家货币贬值对中国出口的不利影响;第三,可以采用诸如提高出口退税率等非汇率政策,保持中国出口的良好前景。
This paper performs an empirical analysis of the determinants of China＇s FDI inflow based on the monthly data over the period from January 1998 to October 2008. The results show that China＇s stock market turnover and foreign export volume are significant internal factors affecting China＇s FDI inflow, but the empirical analysis has not found any evidence that the size of China＇s stock market, the RMB exchange rate and economic growth rate would significantly affect China＇s FDI inflow. In addition, the study also finds that if other conditions remain unchanged, the rising of American long-term return on assets and the increase in the broad measure of money supply in OECD countries will lead to the decrease of China＇s actual utilization of foreign investment. Therefore, the historical data cannot show that China＇s FDI inflows are constrained by the financing capacity of transnational corporations. China must take measures to reduce the negative effects of the international financial crisis on FDI inflows, so as to ensure the steady growth of China＇s economy. Firstly, policies to stabilize the stock markets can be adopted to maintain active stock market trading activities, so as to attract cross-border M＆A inflows; secondly, a moderate depreciation of RMB could be considered, or at least the value of RMB should be kept stable, so as to avoid adverse effects of currency depreciation of the Western countries on China＇s exports; thirdly, some non-exchange rate policies can be adopted, such as to raise the export tax rebate rate, etc., in order to maintain the good prospects of China＇ s exports.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第2期105-112,共8页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目(09BJY003)
上海"曙光计划"项目(09SG32)
关键词
国际金融危机
FDI
人民币汇率
international financial crises
FDI
RMB exchange rate
