摘要
变电站全寿命周期成本(full life-cycle cost,LCC)中包含许多不确定影响因素,这些盲信息影响着LCC估算值的准确度。为量化分析盲信息对变电站成本的影响,引入盲数理论,建立了变电站LCC的盲数模型,以某变电站为例,采用定性专家预测法对其LCC进行估算。结果表明:与传统的确定性模型相比,盲数模型能够得出LCC的可能分布区间,还可以得出各个区间的可信度,这使得估算结果更加合理可信,对于变电站工程项目的成本优化具有参考价值。
There are many uncertain impacting factors in full life-cycle cost （LCC） of substation, and the blind information affects the accuracy of estimation result of LCC. To quantitatively analyze the affects of blind information on substation cost the blind number theory is led in and a blind number model of full life-cycle cost of substation is built. Taking a certain substation for example, its full life-cycle cost is estimated by qualitative expert forecasting method. The estimation results show that comparing with traditional deterministic model, possible distribution intervals of full life-cycle of substation can be attained by blind number model, in addition, the confidence levels of different intervals can also be obtained, and it makes the estimation results more reasonable and creditable. The proposed method is available for reference to cost optimization of substation project.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期141-145,共5页
Power System Technology
关键词
变电站工程
全寿命周期成本
盲数理论
substation project
full life-cycle cost （LCC）
blind number theory
