摘要
随着人类对自然资源尤其是油气资源利用的规模的加大和速度的加快,各地区社会经济的迅速发展。同时油气资源对人类社会经济发展的影响和制约作用也越来越明显。本文建立了我国油气资源—社会经济系统协调发展系统动力学模型,将油气资源—社会经济系统分为五个子系统,并对模型的有效性和可行性进行了分析。最终,运用系统动力学模型进行了政策仿真分析,通过各种方案仿真结果分析,找出了我国油气资源—社会经济系统的协调发展方向。
With the increasing of the natural resources, oil-gas resources in particular, and the development of social economy is rapid, at the same time the constraint of oil-gas resources is more and more obvious for the human social economy development. In this paper, the system dynamics model of coordinate development for China＇s oil-gas resources and social economy system is established, the oil-gas resources and social economy system are divided into five sub-systems, and rationality and effectiveness of the model is analyzed. At last,the policy analysis and system dynamics simulation is analyzed and compared with the use of system dynamics model, by analyzing the simulation results and the direction of coordinate development for China＇ s oil-gas resources and social economy system is found out.
出处
《价值工程》
2010年第8期94-96,共3页
Value Engineering
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(05BJY050)
山东省自然科学基金研究项目(Y2008H37)资助
关键词
系统动力学
油气资源
社会经济
协调发展
system dynamics
oil-gas resources
social economy
coordinated development
