摘要
文章选取1999年第一季度到2009年第一季度我国房地产开发投资完成额和GDP的时间序列数据,利用协整分析和误差修正模型对两者关系进行了计量分析。实证结果表明,房地产投资是刺激我国经济增长的重要变量之一,两者之间是相互影响、相互促进的关系;房地产投资对国民经济增长影响的短期弹性系数是0.184,长期弹性系数是0.364,房地产投资对国民经济增长的长期贡献显著。
This paper selected the time - series data of China＇ s real estate investment and GDP from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2009, using cointegration analysis and error correction model to identify the relationship between the two. The empirical results show that, the real estate investment is one of the important variables that stimulating the economic growth in China. The relationship between the two is mutual influencing and promoting. The short - term elasticity coefficient of the influence of real estate investment upon e- conomic growth is 0. 184, and the long- term elasticity coefficient is 0. 364. Which is to say, real estate investment remarkably contributes to national economic growth in the long term.
出处
《西安财经学院学报》
2010年第2期29-32,共4页
Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics
关键词
房地产投资
国民经济增长
协整分析
误差修正模型
real estate investment
economic growth
cointegration analysis
error correction model
