摘要
为了分析信号交叉口几何设计及其他交通相关因素对安全的影响,搜集了北京市87个信号交叉口4年的轻伤及以上伤亡事故及相关交通信息,构建了事故纵向数据样本。利用基本负二项回归模型和分别基于3种作业相关结构的广义估计方程负二项模型对数据样本进行拟合。通过累积残差检验比较了4种回归模型对数据样本的拟合性能。结果表明,基于自回归型相关结构的广义估计方程负二项回归模型具有最优拟合效果。利用该模型对影响轻伤及以上伤亡事故发生的各显著因素作用进行了估计,并与基本负二项回归模型所估计的结果进行了比较,说明了时间相关性对模型估计的影响。
A longitudinal traffic accident data set was constructed based on the collected in 4 years severe crush（involving light injury and more severe）and related traffic data on 87 4-legged signalized intersections in Beijing city.The data were fitted with the basic negative binominal model（NBM）and the generalized estimation equation（GEE）based NBM with 3 different working correlation structures.The goodness-of-fits of the data samples by the 4 regression models were compared by the cumulative residual tests,and the results show that the GEE NBM with autoregressive correlation structure has the best goodness-of-fit.The model was used to estimate the effect of each significant factor on severe crash occurence.The estimations were compared with those by the basic NBM,and the effect of the temporal correlation on the model estimation was revealed.
出处
《吉林大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期417-422,共6页
Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition
基金
'863'国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2006AA11Z214)
交通部西部交通建设科技项目(2007319811140)
关键词
交通运输安全工程
事故分析
广义估计方程
信号交叉口
事故频次
负二项回归
engineering of communication and transportation safety
accident analysis
generalized estimating equations
signalized intersection
accident frequency
negative binomial regression
