摘要
提高原油采收率潜力分析中采用的基础数据(如油藏参数、经济参数等)存在一定的波动或不确定性,由此给得出的评价指标及做出的决策带来很大程度的风险。基于蒙特卡洛原理,结合油藏数值模拟技术和经济评价方法提出了提高原油采收率潜力风险性评价方法。定义了风险指数来定量表征实施强化采油方法风险的大小。以某油藏聚合物驱为例,介绍了提高原油采收率潜力风险性评价过程。应用结果表明,所建立的方法能综合考虑强化采油方法的技术、经济适应性及风险性,从而有效地指导油田开发决策。
Fluctuation and uncertainty existed in the basic data, such as reservoir and economic parameters in the analysis of the potential of enhanced oil recovery, thereby there were considerable risks in the appraisal indexes and decision making. On the basis of the Monte Carlo principle, potential risk appraisal method in enhanced oil recovery was developed in combination with reservoir numerical simulation and economic appraisal method. And then the size of risk in enhanced oil recovery was quantitatively characterized by the definition of risk index. By Taking polymer flooding in a certain reservoir for example, the process of potential risk appraisal method for enhanced oil recovery was introduced. The result indicates that the technological and economic adaptabilities and risk in enhanced oil recovery are integrally taken into account in the method and it provides a guideline for decision-making in reservoir development.
出处
《石油天然气学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第1期343-345,350,共4页
Journal of Oil and Gas Technology
基金
国家科技重大专项项目(2008ZX05011-006)
关键词
风险性
蒙特卡洛
提高采收率
聚合物驱
潜力评价
risk
Monte Carlo
enhanced oil recovery
polymer flooding
potential appraisal
