摘要
目的探讨小儿肺炎发病与气象因子的关系。方法利用南宁市15家医院15924例小儿肺炎的发病资料,与相应的南宁市月、旬、候气象因子进行相关分析,在此基础上,根据前一月、旬、候的气象因子建立预测模型,并将实测值与预测值进行比较验证。结果小儿肺炎发病与同期月、旬、候平均气温值呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.7596、0.6824、0.6509,P均<0.01;与平均最高气温值呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.7361、0.6498、0.6123,P均<0.01;与平均最低气温值呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.7731、0.6941、0.6596,P均<0.01;与同期月、旬、候平均气压值呈正相关,相关系数分别为-0.7981、-0.7282、-0.6677,P均<0.01;与平均相对湿度呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.4658、0.3382、0.2473,P均<0.01;与平均露点温度呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.7981、0.7070、0.6561,P均<0.01,与平均降雨量呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.4497、0.3213、0.1987,P均<0.01。前一月、旬、候的平均气温值、平均最高气温值、平均最低气温值、平均气压值、平均露点温度值、平均降雨量对小儿肺炎发病预测价值较大,实测值和预测值相符率分别为73.2%、69.2%、70.3%。结论小儿肺炎发病与同期月、旬、候的平均气温值、平均最高气温值、平均最低气温值、平均气压值、平均相对湿度、平均露点温度等气象因子变化密切相关。依据小儿肺炎发病与前一月、旬、候上述气象因子的密切关系,可以较准确可靠地对小儿肺炎发病进行长期和中期医疗气象预报。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of children pneumonia and meteorological factors.Methods Data of 15 924 cases of children pneumonia from 15 hospitals in Nanning city were collected,the results were analyzed with meteorological factors of Nanning city at per month,every ten days and every five days.A forecast model on the basic of previous month,every ten days and every five days was established and then compares the real value with the forecast value.Results Correlation coefficients between children pneumonia and mean temperature of per month,every ten days and every five days were 0.7596,0.6824 and 0.6509,respectively,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean maximum temperature were 0.7361,0.6498 and 0.6123,respectively,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean minimum temperature were 0.7731,0.6941 and 0.6596,respectively,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean air pressure were -0.7981,-0.7282 and -0.6677,respectively,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean relative humidity were 0.4658,0.3382,and 0.2473,respectively,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean dew point temperature were 0.7981,0.7070 and 0.6561,all P〈0.01;between children pneumonia and mean rainfall were 0.4497,0.3213 and 0.1987,all P〈0.01.The mean temperature,mean maximum temperature,mean minimum temperature,mean air pressure,mean dew point temperature and mean rainfall of first previous month,every ten days and every five days were with higher forecast value,the coincidence rate between real value and forecast value was 73.2%,69.2% and 70.3%,respectively.Conclusion Incidence of children pneumonia are closely relate to mean temperature,mean maximum temperature,mean minimum temperature,mean air pressure,mean dew point temperature and mean rainfall of the corresponding period of month,every ten days and every five days.We can forecast incidence of children pneumonia in a long and middle term pattern by the relation with meteorological factors of first previous month,every ten days and every five days.
出处
《广西医学》
CAS
2010年第1期8-12,共5页
Guangxi Medical Journal
基金
广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目(桂科攻9919030B)
广西南宁市科学研究与技术开发计划项目(南科攻990247D)
关键词
小儿肺炎发病
气象因子
温度
气压
湿度
Incidence of children pneumonia Meteorological factors Temperature Air pressure Humidity
