摘要
基于协整理论,利用1978-2007年的时间序列数据,从城镇居民和农村居民人均消费支出角度,通过构建四变量VAR模型,分析了经济增长及宏观调控对我国居民消费的效应。研究结果表明:居民收入是影响居民消费的主要因素;不确定性的增加对居民消费具有抑制作用;经济增长对我国居民消费产生正向效应,但影响不明显;宏观调控对于农村居民消费的影响大于城镇居民,其中政府支出对我国居民消费影响主要表现为挤入效应,而利率的收入效应大于替代效应;最后,适度的通货膨胀有利于促进居民消费。
Based on the co-integration theory, using 1978-2007 annual time series data, from the perspective of urban and rural residents per capita consumption expenditure, this paper analyses the effects of economic growth and macro-control on China＇s household consumption by constructing a four variable VAR model. The empirical results show that the per capita income is the main factor affecting consumer spending; the increasing uncertainty has the inhibitory effect on the household consumption; economic growth generates weak positive influence on household consumption; macro-control has greater effect on rural residents than urban residents, of which the government expenditure has the crowding-in effect on household consumption, while the income effect of interest rates is greater than the substitution effect; finally, moderate inflation is conducive to the promotion of household consumption.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期11-18,共8页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
2008年新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-08-0450)
西安交通大学"985工程二期"项目(07200701)
关键词
经济增长
宏观调控
居民消费
效应
协整分析
economic growth
macro-control
household consumption
effect
co-integration analysis
