摘要
经济投票理论认为,执政者的经济表现决定选民投票行为,当选民认为执政者应为经济表现不佳负责,或选民对未来经济评估悲观时,会投票支持反对党,以惩罚执政党;反之则继续支持执政党。台湾地区虽采行西方选举制度,但选民在自1996年以来的台湾地区领导人选举中的经济投票行为(包括回顾性经济投票和展望性经济投票)都表现出强烈的异质性。这与台湾特殊政治生态和独特的选民结构密切关联。未来,选民的经济投票行为能否回归常态,取决于台湾社会的主要分歧线是两岸关系议题还是经济民生议题。
Economic voting theory suggests that the incumbent＇s economic performance determining electoral behavior, in other words, voters who think that the incumbent should take responsibility for the poor economic performance, or assess the future economy is pessimistic, will vote for the opposition political party in order to punish the ruling party ; on the contrary, they will continue to support the ruling party. Although Taiwan＇s election is to adopt the West＇s electoral system, the eleetorate＇s economic voting behavior （ including retrospective voting and prospective voting） are showed strong heterogeneity in the Taiwan Region leader＇s elections since 1996. This phenomenon is closely related to Taiwan＇s special political ecology and the unique voters＇ structure. The future, the Electorate＇s Economic Voting Behavior can return to the normal or not, depending on the social cleav- age line which is Cross -Strait Relations or economic and livelihood issues in Taiwan.
出处
《台湾研究集刊》
CSSCI
2010年第2期42-50,共9页
Taiwan Research Journal
关键词
台湾地区
选举
投票行为
经济投票
两岸关系
Taiwan, election, voting behavior, economic voting, Cross - Strait relations
