摘要
文章利用2002～2007年上海市人群死亡资料,计算不同节气的每天死亡数,采用圆形统计分布和超额死亡比,分析不同人群和死因的节气分布。得出:人群死亡的节气超额死亡比从立冬以后增长明显,至小寒、大寒节气达到一年的最高峰。男性和女性死亡节气的分布特点相似,而不同年龄组死亡节气分布不同。研究显示,节气能较准确地综合反映一年中不同时间气象的变化,对在时间上预警某些疾病的死亡危险,保护和干预高危人群具有一定的意义。
Using mortality data from Shanghai death registration system, this paper examines death distribution in solar terms by population groups and by causes of death according to the daily death counts by different populations in different solar terms. The circular distribution statistics and the excess mortality ratio （EMR） are employed to analyze how death occurrences from differen! causes or different population groups are distributed in different solar terms. The mean angle of the population exists in 347.61°（Great Cold）, while that of the four different age groups （0 -4, 5 - 44, 45 - 64, and above 65 years） were 207.13° （Stopping the Heat）, 343.34° （Slight Cold）, 321. 31°（Winter Solstice）, and 349.25° （Great cold） respectively. Moreover, the mean angles of the circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and diabetes were between 344.04°（ Slight Cold） and 359.44°（Great Cold）. Furthermore, EMR increases significantly after the Winter Solstice Term, reaching the peak in Slight Cold and Great Cold. The transition of EMR among the two genders has similar trends, while that among different age groups has different patterns. Thus, solar terms, reflecting climate variation rather accurately in a year, may predict temporal mortality risk of some diseases, which is of significance in protecting the susceptible population groups.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第2期88-95,共8页
Population Research
关键词
死亡比
节气变化
时间趋势
Mortality Ratio
Solar Terms
Time Trends
