摘要
中国的出口鼓励政策和结构性原因导致中国长期保持经常项目顺差,中国的引资优惠政策则导致中国的资本项目顺差。中国的双顺差意味着一方面中国以高成本输入资本,另一方面以低收益输出资本。换言之,双顺差使中国遭受了严重的福利损失。更糟糕的是,长期的双顺差使中国陷入了美元陷阱。中国的双顺差并非仅仅是诸如储蓄过度等所谓结构失衡的结果。事实上,在很大程度上,中国的结构失衡是执行出口导向战略和相应政策的结果。政策创造路径依赖。结构的再平衡需要政策变化为先导。为了纠正中国的结构不平衡,政策调整是不可避免的。对于中国来说,范式转变和政策调整已经刻不容缓。
China has long run current account surplus,owing to its trade encouragement policy and structural factors. In the mean time,it also runs capital account surplus due to its preferential policy towards FDI and other attractiveness. China’s running of 'twin surpluses' means that while importing capital in the form of FDI and foreign debts with high costs,it exports capital in the form of piling up greenbacks and US treasuries with low yields or no yields at all. By doing so,China has been suffering massive welfare losses. To make things worse,China has fallen into a dollar trap.China’s twin surpluses are not just a result of the so-called structural imbalances,such as excess savings. As a matter of fact,to a very large extent,China’s external imbalances are created by its growth strategy centered on export promotion and related policies. Policies create path dependence. The rebalancing of the economic structure is pre-conditional on policy changes. To correct China’s imbalances,paradigm shift and policy adjustment admit of no delay.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期7-44,共38页
International Economic Review
