摘要
城市轨道交通AFC系统设备,可靠性是1个概率问题,具有不确定性。应用马尔可夫方法的无后效性原理,建立了AFC设备的故障预测模型。在模型建立的基础上,采用蒙特卡罗方法进行仿真实现,为系统年度维护计划提供依据。
Reliability is a question of probability,which has a feature of uncertainty.In this paper,a predicating model is established by using stability ineffectiveness theory of Markov.On the basis of model building,the model is simulated via Monte Carlo method,which provides a reference for the annual maintenance plan.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2010年第2期110-113,共4页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
