摘要
以郑州１９９１～１９９６年城市道路交通噪声监测的数据，运用灰色系统理论，建立了常规ＧＭ（１，１）和新陈代谢ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型。经用四种不同方法对两种模型的精度进行检验，结果表明，新陈代谢ＧＭ（１，１）模型优于常规ＧＭ（１，１）模型，其精度更高，不失为预测城市道路交通噪声的一种好方法。应用该模型，对郑州城市道路交通噪声未来１０年进行预测。
This paper establishes an ordinary GM(1,1) model and information renewal GM(1,1) predicting model on the grey theory,using the data drawn from the 1991～1996 city road traffic noise of Zhengzhou,Henan province.Four different methods to test the accuracy of the two models are tried.The comparison implies that the information renewal GM(1,1) model is superior to the ordinary GM(1,1) model because of its higher accuracy,and it can be regarded as a better method in predicting city road traffic noise.The information renewal GM(1,1) model is applied to the predicting of city traffic noise of Zhengzhou in the period of 10 years,and the result fits the reality very well.
出处
《中国环境监测》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第1期54-57,共4页
Environmental Monitoring in China
关键词
灰色预测
新陈代谢模型
城市道路交通
噪声
Grey system Grey predicting Information renewal City road traffic noise Model testing
