摘要
本文从效用最大化目标出发,在同时考虑了地方政府间策略博弈与跨期预算约束的条件下,说明地方环境支出的供给路径应满足的动态方程可以被包含在一类空间动态面板模型中。为联合揭示空间效应的异质性与时间动态路径的非对称分布,本文提出该模型的工具变量分位点估计步骤。基于2002—2006年中国276个地级市构成的面板数据,本文运用所建模型与方法检验了地方政府在环境政策上的竞争和博弈行为。主要的实证结果包含:地方环境支出的同期外溢效应在中高分位点上显著为正,且随着分位点的增大而不断增强,但就全局而言此效应并不强烈。环境支出增长在较低水平上依靠时间上的累积,但随着支出水平提高直到某一阈值后,地区间竞争成为拉动地方环境支出的主要动力。预算平衡的作用使得跨期空间效应显著为负,且城市环境支出的水平越是高,预算平衡的作用也越强。另外,环境支出从低分位点开始随地区经济发展逐渐被挤出,但在高分位点上又获得了支持。所有这些为我们理解地方环境政策与财政分权背景下地方政府对公共服务的供给偏好转变提供了线索。
We show in this paper that the dynamic path of local public expenditure follows a spatial dynamic panel data model by accounting for both cross sectional strategic interactions and inter-temporal budget constraints. To estimate the economic relations that display both inhomogeneous spillovers and asymmetric temporal dynamics, an instrumental variable quantile regression estimator is proposed, We then apply the suggested model and method to examining the strategic engagement of environmental policymaking among local governments using the panel data consisting of 276 municipalities in China from 2002 to 2006, The empirical findings include that the contemporaneous spatial effect increases as spending goes up and is significantly positively registered over medium-high quantile points while the inter-temporal spatial effect is estimated to be negative through all the quantiles. Local environmental spending grows by fiscal accumulation on medium-low quantiles up to some higher threshold level where the spending starts to be fueled by strategic competition with neighboring municipalities. The environmental input is inclined to be crowded out by developing reg/onal economy at medium-low quantiles and is supported at higher quantiles.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期82-94,共13页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“空间计量经济学理论及其在现代城市服务业空间布局效率的应用研究”(项目批准号70871083)
国家自然科学基金项目“针对复发性流行病分析的遥感与GIS应用及时空数据建模”(项目批准号40671146)的资助
关键词
地方政府竞争
跨期约束
空间动态面板模型
分位点估计
Strategic Interaction among Local Government
Inter-temporal Constraint
Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models
Quantile Regression
