摘要
多变的天气环境和电气量等运行条件会对电力系统短期运行的可靠性产生重要的影响。研究了计及天气预测的电力系统运行可靠性短期评估。建立了基于支持向量机的天气预测模型,并将其与元件短期可靠性模型相结合,以反映气温、风速、天气状况、元件服役时间、负荷水平等运行条件的影响;拓展了短期可靠性指标,并开发了相应的评估算法;通过短期可靠性评估实现了系统薄弱环节定位。对修正的IEEE RTS-79系统的算例分析表明所提模型和算法是合理有效的。该方案可应用到短期运行规划和在线调度领域,为规划和运行人员的科学决策提供必要的决策依据和技术支持。
The time-varying weather conditions and electrical conditions have significant impacts on power system short-term operational reliability.This paper studies power system shor t-term operational reliability evaluation considering weather forecast.Firstl y,a weather forecast model based on support vector machin e（SV M）and shor t-term reliability models of power equipment are proposed to reflect the effects of operating conditions such as ambient temperature,wind velocity,weather condition,service time of equipmen t,load current and so on.Secondly,shor t-term reliability indices are extended,and the corresponding evaluation algorithm is developed.Finall y,weak links of the power system are located through the short-term operational reliability evaluation.The proposed models and algorithms are tested under different operating conditions by using the modified IEEE RTS-79 system and their effectiveness is verified.This scheme can be applied in the area of both sh ort-term operational planning and online dispatching of power systems to assist planners and operators to make decisions.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期31-38,51,共9页
Power System Protection and Control
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB-217908)
国家留学基金2008年国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(留金出[2008]3019)~~
关键词
条件相依
关键重要度
运行可靠性
概率评估
灵敏度分析
支持向量机
天气预测
condition dependent
criticality importance
operational reliability
probabilistic assessment
sensitivity analysis
support vector machine
weather forecast
