摘要
简单介绍城市电网风险评估的意义和背景。建立停运模型得到元件的停运概率。通过蒙特卡罗法得到系统各故障状态发生的概率,以各负荷点的变化情况,分析每种故障的危害程度,再根据不同的危害度提出了风险指标。该方法主要针对复杂电网进行风险评估,采取了改进的截断抽样法,并在2 000次抽样后再判断是否终止抽样分析。极大地提高了计算速度,尽快地为运行人员提供预警信息。
This paper briefly introduces the background and the significance of urban power grids,builds the model of components outage probability,and obtains the probability of the system of all the failed state with the Monte Carlo method.According to the changes of the loads about power grid,the harm degree of all kinds fault is analyzed.On the basis of different harm degree,the risk index is gotten.By taking the improved interceptive sample method and deciding whether stops sampling after 2000 times of sampling,this method is mainly used to solve complex power grid assessment problem.It improves greatly computing speed.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期58-61,共4页
Power System Protection and Control
关键词
调度预警
蒙特卡洛
风险评估
dispatch pre-warning
Monte Carlo
risk assessment
