摘要
丹江口大坝加高工程将动迁33万移民。为了实现和谐搬迁,有必要了解待迁移民对搬迁的态度及其影响因素。采用丹江口库区农村待迁移民194例入户问卷调查资料,进行二项逻辑回归分析,得到结论:目前农业收入比重、偏远村、较远村、成员平均年龄、户主年龄、家庭规模、农忙是否换工、户主受教育年限每变化一个单位,相应的愿意搬迁的发生比分别是26.6,8.7,3.1,0.9,0.7,0.5,0.2和0.1;其中,后5个变量是负向影响。由此可知,目前较高的非农收入比重,较好的地理位置、人力资源和政治资源,会显著降低搬迁意愿。因此,选择经济水平较高的安置地是提高搬迁意愿的重要因素;同时应针对各群体的不同预期,采用分步搬迁和灵活多样的安置、补偿方式。
Danjiangkou Dam Heightening Project will make about 330,000 people be relocated. It is imperative to know these people＇ s attitudes to relocation and the factors which lead to such attitudes. We argue the detenninant factor of attitudes is whether the expected benefits exceed the current income. By logistic regressive analysis of the data from the survey of 194 households＇ questionnaires in Danjiangkou reservoir area, we draw some conclusions ： the current agricultural income ratio, far away village, far village, average age of family members, age of household＇ s head, family size, exchanging labor or not in busy farming season, education level of household＇ s head and party members＇ quantity change in one unit, the OR of willing to relocate arc 26.6, 8.7, 3.1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1. Among them, the last six indicators are negative effects. It can be seen, higher non - agricultural income proportion, better location, haman resources, political resources and social resources will influence attitudes negatively. So, at first, it is important to choose a better place than the origin one as the destination. Then, people should be removed step by step and the resettlement and compensation should be flexible.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期57-63,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目"提高区域协调度的多尺度计算机仿真技术研发"(NO.2006BAC18B00)"生态补偿关键技术开发与示范应用"课题(NO.2006BAC18B04)的部分成果
关键词
丹江口
农村
待迁移民
意愿
预期收益
Danjiangkou
farmers to be relocated
attitudes
expected return
logistic regression model
