摘要
本文以2006-2008三年的年度业绩预告作为公司未来盈利预测信息的研究样本,对股权分置改革后上市公司未来盈利预测信息的有用性进行实证分析。研究表明,上市公司未来盈利预测信息具有明显的短期披露效应:公告类型与股票价格的变动方向和大小有着符号上的一致性和统计上的显著性。公告前的股价反应表明,市场存在以利好消息进行内幕交易的可能性。与以前研究结论所不同的是,长期事件窗口的结果显示盈利预测信息的披露效应存在一定的局限性。
Using the annual earnings warning issued from 2006 to 2008 as study samples of future earnings forecasts,this paper analyzes the usefulness of the disclosure of future earnings forecasts after the reform of the shareholder structure of listed companies by Event study.The research shows that the future earnings forecasts of listed companies produces apparent short-term disclosure effect： There is symbolic consistency and statistical significance between the types of announcement and the undulation and quantity of stock price.The reaction of stock price before the announcement shows that,through bullish announcements,the possibility of insider trading exists in the market.Differing from the former conclusion,the result of the long-term event shows that there is a certain limitation in the disclosure effect of the financial forecast information.
出处
《未来与发展》
2010年第6期50-54,共5页
Future and Development
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(08JC630064)
关键词
未来盈利预测信息
业绩预告
有用性
Future Earnings Forecasts
Earnings Warning
Usefulness
