摘要
快速、有效的应急反应是控制船舶溢油事故危害和降低损失的关键。事故船作为溢油事故的第一发现方,对溢油的先期应急处置具有非常重要的影响。为此有必要探索事故船的溢油先期处置决策机理和影响因素。以个体决策偏好理论中经典的随机效用理论为依托,建立了行为反应模式,并基于问卷调查数据,实现了事故船舶溢油先期处置决策偏好模型的拟合、参数估计和选择偏好估计。结果显示:溢油水域的风力、浪高、雾况和可能的溢油量,船上应急设备配备和船员应急经验等会影响事故船舶有关溢油先期处置的决策偏好。
Prompt and effective emergency response plays a key role in controlling and reducing oil-spill damage.The first treatment decisions about oil spill,made by accident ship,the first agent of discovering oil-spill,has primarily effect on the event.It is therefore necessary to study the mechanism and affecting factors of accident ship＇s first treatment decision making process.A behavior response model of accident ship is set up on the basis of Random Utility Theory.Based on the practical human behavior data from questionnaire,model fitting, parameter estimating and choice preference estimating are carried out.Simulation results show that the first treatment choices are mainly influenced by wind scale,wave height and fog condition in water area of oil spill and emergency equipment onboard as well as crews＇ experiences.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期74-76,99,共4页
Navigation of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70673060)
关键词
水路运输
船舶溢油事故
事故应急
随机效用理论
决策偏好
waterway transportation
ship oil-spill accident
accident emergency
Random Utility Theories
decision preference
