摘要
随着人类对流域水土地资源开发强度的不断扩大,流域人地关系地域系统及其演化逐步为国内外学者所关注。文章从资源环境和社会经济两个方面出发选择了与流域人地系统相关的40项指标,建立了流域人地关系地域系统评价指标体系;运用层次分析法确定指标权重,并借助系统理论建立了人地关系地域系统协调发展的动态耦合模型,对1996-2006年渭河流域人地关系地域系统的耦合态势进行了实证分析。研究表明,1996-2006年间,渭河流域的社会经济发展水平呈波动上升趋势,资源环境状况对经济社会发展响应明显,并随经济社会发展而波动,呈现先好转后恶化再好转又恶化的反复波动态势。对渭河流域人地系统耦合度的研究表明,渭河流域耦合度增长很快,并呈现出一种S型规律,即随着经济社会的发展,在开始时因资源开发需要,流域人地系统的耦合度发展缓慢,随着经济社会发展对环境逐步适应,耦合度快速上升,最后受资源过度消耗和环境污染的限制耦合度将接近某一饱和水平。目前,渭河流域已处于过度开发阶段,资源环境危机也已处于潜伏期,若不注意环境保护、过度开发资源,将很快跨越现在的阶段,持续增长的经济水平和不断提高的消费水平使资源环境系统不堪重负,环境质量不断降低,人地系统关系不断恶化,同时资源环境反馈于社会经济,系统将进入负增长阶段。
As various resources have been developed by human-beings in river basins and the conflict between human and land has been increased,the research on man-land relationship areal system in a river basin becomes important.The paper constructed evaluation indexes system for evaluating the man-land relationship areal system in river basins by selecting 40 indicators related to socio-economic sub-system and resource-environment sub-system.After using analytic hierarchy process to determine index weight,the coupling status of the man-land relationship areal system in the Weihe river basin from 1996 to 2006 has been analyzed empirically by using a dynamic coupling model for the harmonious development based on the system theory.The results show that the socio-economic level in the main stream basin of the Weihe River has increased its volatility from 1996 to 2006 accompanied with the fluctuations of resource-environmental state.The resource-environment sub-system shows repeated fluctuations with deterioration and improvement in turns.The research shows that the coupling degree in the man-land relationship areal system increases rapidly in the Weihe River basin.At present,the man-land relationship areal system in the Weihe River basin is at an over-exploitation phase.Also,the crisis of resource-environment is in the incubation period.If we do not pay attention to environmental protection and go on to overexploit resources,the situation will get worse quickly.At that time,the growth of economy and the increase of consumption of resources will overwhelm the resource-environment system and lead to continuous decrease of environmental quality.Then the relations between the two systems will be deteriorated,and also the socio-economic development will be constrained.The system will enter a phase of negative growth.So it is crucial to adopt proper socio-economic development mode to realize the coordinated development in the Weihe River basin.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期733-739,共7页
Progress in Geography
基金
教育部博士点基金资助项目(20060697004)
西北大学研究生自主创新资助项目(08YZZ29)
关键词
流域人地关系地域系统
耦合度
协调发展
渭河流域
man-land relationship areal system in a river basin
coupling degree
coordinated development
Weihe River basin
