摘要
积极的经济政策在促进经济增长、保证就业中的作用是当前宏观经济政策讨论的重点,本文讨论货币政策冲击对就业等宏观经济变量的动态效应。首先,基于宏观季度数据,运用结构向量自回归方法,得到就业、产出和通胀在货币供给冲击下的动态反应,给出经验事实:在一单位货币供给冲击下,就业呈驼峰形态,缓慢下降回归稳态,显示出很强的持续性,但在中远期失业会增加;通货膨胀呈驼峰形态,显示很强的惯性特征,但在中远期会出现通货紧缩;产出温和增长,呈驼峰形态,显示出很强的持续性。同时,为进一步从经济理论上解析货币供给冲击对就业、产出和通胀传导的机制,数值模拟一个刚性工资模型,将模拟的脉冲反应结果与实证经验事实相比较,发现理论模型能较好地拟合上述三个经验事实,并从理论上进行货币供给冲击的经济传导机制分析。最后,结合经验事实与模型经济探讨了扩张型货币政策冲击下就业、通胀和产出的反应模式,给出政策建议,即扩张型货币供给冲击短期内能够有效刺激就业,促进经济增长;但在远期形成失业和通货紧缩,因此需要其他配套政策,如财政政策、收入政策等相配合。
The paper provides empirical evidences of the responses of employment,output and inflation to money supply shock based on China macroeconomic data using VAR method. Several typical facts reach： （ a） expansionary monetary shock leads to hump-shaped behavior of employment which reaches its peak after three quarters and remain high value for another three quarters,after then employment decreases mildly over future periods. Employment shows strong persistence. （b） Expansionary monetary shock leads to the hump-shaped behavior of inflation which reaches its peak after six quarters. Positive monetary shock leads to persistence increase of inflation. Inflation displays strong inertia on the impact of monetary shocks. （c） Expansionary monetary shock leads to mild increase of output moving in the way of hump- shaped,lasting about for 20 quarters,and then returnes to the original level. We lay out a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporated with monopolistic competition and wage rigidity,demonstrate in what extension of how such type of model economy calibrated can explain the typical facts presented by the empirical evidence aforementioned.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期7-16,共10页
Statistical Research
