摘要
通过对2006年6~9月（雨季）大量雷暴对流参数进行计算,选取离西昌发射场最近的单点同化资料。利用相关系数法选取相关性好且稳定的预报因子,进行事件概率回归,得到雷暴预报方程。并对2007年雨季西昌雷暴进行预报,取得了较好的效果。分析表明,基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法对场区雷暴的预报具有明显的效果。
Through the calculation for thunderstorm index from June to September 2006,select the nearest pin-point assimilational data.Select the well correlate and stable predictor in correlation method.Using Regression Estimation of Event Probability to analyze predictor,the thunderstorm prediction equation can be obtained.This method could be well in thunderstorm forecasts of the Xichang launch site in rainy season 2007.The forecast results show that thunderstorm index forecast method have the perfect practical application effect.
出处
《高原山地气象研究》
2010年第2期22-25,共4页
Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
关键词
对流参数
概率回归
雷暴预报
convection parameter regession
estimation of probability
thunderstorm forecast
