摘要
为准确预测航空弹药平时消耗量,根据历史消耗数据,对其进行多元线性回归预测、灰色预测、并联及串联灰色多元线性回归预测,取得了良好的预测效果。对比各个模型得到的结果,并联型模型能综合多种因素,预测具有非劣性;串联模型能降低原始数据的随机性,提高模型预测精度,预测精度高,可用于实际预测,对航空弹药平时订货有一定的参考作用。
In order to forecast peacetime aviation ammunition consumption precisely, according to former consumption data, bench mark forecast was made. Multivariable linear regression forecast model, grey forecast model, shunt-wound and series-wound grey multivariable liner regression models were given. The result of each model had been tested. The series-wound model can reduce the randomness of original data and improve forecasting precision;The shunt-wound model can integrate many factors and has a useful value. The series-wound model has the most precise forecast value; it can be used for practicai forecast and aviation ammunition peacetime indent.
出处
《弹箭与制导学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期239-242,共4页
Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance
关键词
航空弹药
消耗量
预测模型
aviation ammunition
consumption
forecast model
